Midterm Wave Elections: The Effects of Candidate Quality and Ideology on Reelection*
نویسنده
چکیده
The causes of seat change in midterm elections have been debated for decades. Some political scientists believe seat change is caused by heightened national conditions; others argue seat change is a result of conditions within districts. Political scientists agree however that candidate quality affects election outcomes. In general, the party that recruits the highest quality candidates and runs them in the most strategic districts will win the most seats. As this study reveals, when national conditions are favorable for one party, quality candidates from that party will run, while those from the other party will wait for a more opportune time. This “strategic politician theory” is particularly evident in wave elections. Large seat turnovers result in the election of quality candidates for the favored party, but because so many seats are won, non-quality candidates get elected as well. This study explains high seat turnover means for subsequent contests.
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